Can she actually flip the ultra-red state of Florida in her favor?
Following President Joe Biden’s lackluster performance in the recent debate, there has been a noticeable shift in several states, with some slipping away from Democratic control. However, with Vice President Kamala Harris now at the forefront of the Democratic ticket, there’s a renewed sense of optimism among Democrats about potential victories in traditionally Republican strongholds.
Florida, a state that has increasingly leaned Republican in recent years, had initially shown some promise for Democrats due to a significant ballot measure on abortion scheduled for November. Despite this, Biden’s poor debate performance seemed to push Florida out of reach. Nevertheless, Harris’s rise as the Democratic nominee has rekindled hopes for a potential upset in the Sunshine State.
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) has expressed a renewed sense of enthusiasm about Florida’s prospects, suggesting that Harris’s candidacy could shift the dynamics in the state. “Don’t underestimate Florida,” Wasserman Schultz urged, highlighting Harris’s deep understanding of the state’s political landscape and her ability to energize younger, minority, and female voters.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison has also voiced support, stressing that Florida, along with North Carolina, should not be dismissed as lost causes. According to Harrison, Harris’s candidacy could bring these states into play for the Democrats.
Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried has echoed these sentiments, stating that the enthusiasm among Florida Democrats is at an all-time high. In a statement, Fried emphasized that Harris has revitalized the Democratic base and spurred nationwide engagement in the electoral process. “Overlook Florida at your own risk,” Fried warned, suggesting that voters in Florida are seeking change and are ready to back new leadership.
Despite these optimistic views, recent polls paint a challenging picture for Democrats in Florida. Former President Donald Trump continues to hold a significant lead over Biden, with RealClearPolitics showing Trump ahead by approximately 6.3 percentage points. A Florida Atlantic University poll also indicates that Trump maintains a lead over Harris, albeit narrower, with a 49%-44% advantage among likely voters.
Furthermore, Amendment 4, which proposes to enshrine abortion rights through viability into law, has been perceived as a critical issue for Democrats aiming to secure victories in both the presidential and Senate races. However, the state’s requirement for a 60% majority to pass ballot measures presents a formidable hurdle.
Historically, Democrats have struggled to secure statewide victories in Florida. Since 2000, Democrats have only won the state’s presidential vote twice, in 2008 and 2012. In other statewide elections, Democrats have won only a handful of offices, with Nikki Fried being the most recent Democrat to win a statewide position as agriculture commissioner in 2018.
Currently, the Cook Political Report categorizes Florida as “likely Republican” for the presidential race, reflecting the ongoing challenge for Democrats to shift the state’s political balance.
