Here’s what Republican voters need to know…
Recent polling data indicates a competitive race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in crucial swing states that could decide the November election. According to a recent survey by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm, Trump and Harris are currently tied, each receiving 46 percent of the vote across five key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and Arizona. Meanwhile, 4 percent of voters support third-party candidates, and 4 percent remain undecided.
When examining the states individually, the survey reveals a tight contest. Harris leads in Pennsylvania with 48 percent compared to Trump’s 45 percent, and also holds a slight edge in Wisconsin with 48 percent to Trump’s 46 percent. In Michigan, both candidates are tied at 45 percent each. Conversely, Trump has the advantage in Arizona, garnering 48 percent of the vote to Harris’ 43 percent, and also leads in Nevada with 46 percent compared to Harris’ 45 percent.
The poll, which interviewed 400 people with a margin of error of ±2.19 percent, shows that Harris has made significant strides since launching her campaign just two weeks ago. This recent progress is evident when comparing it to previous polls. A Bloomberg and Morning Consult poll conducted between July 24 and 28, covering seven states with 4,972 respondents, shows Harris narrowly leading Trump by 1 point, with 48 percent to his 47 percent.
This represents a notable improvement for Harris and the Democratic party over earlier polls. For instance, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey from early July showed Biden trailing Trump by an average of 2 percentage points across the seven states. In particular, Harris had a substantial lead in Michigan with 53 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, and also edged him out in Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
Despite these gains, Trump continues to lead by 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and the race is tied in Georgia at 47 percent. Other recent polls, such as those by Morning Consult and Leger, confirm Harris’ improved standing but also highlight that Trump maintains a lead or is very competitive in several states.
Election analyst Nate Silver’s forecasts suggest that while Harris might win the popular vote, Trump has a stronger chance of securing the Electoral College. His model predicts a 61.3 percent probability of Trump winning the Electoral College versus a 38.1 percent chance for Harris, while Harris holds a 53.5 percent chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.5 percent.
Aggregated polls from sources such as The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris by 1 to 2 points, though this margin is smaller than the lead Biden held prior to his campaign suspension.
