Kamala Leading Trump Where?

Recent polling data suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining traction nationally in ways President Joe Biden did not manage during his campaign. According to a Marquette University Law School survey, Harris currently garners 52% support from registered voters, while former President Donald Trump has the backing of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris’s support slightly increases to 53%, with Trump at 47%. This includes voters who initially did not select either candidate but were later asked to choose between Harris and Trump.

Harris appears to have consolidated support for the Democratic ticket more effectively than Biden. In a previous Marquette poll from May, Trump led with 51% among likely voters, compared to Biden’s 49% among registered voters. In a hypothetical scenario where Biden was still in the race, Trump was projected to win with 47% support compared to Biden’s 43%, and 11% of respondents were unsure.

The majority of Democrats seem to be backing Harris, with 87% expressing satisfaction with her candidacy and only 10% indicating dissatisfaction. This is a significant shift, as a similar percentage of Democrats believe Biden should have exited the race. The confidence in Harris contrasts sharply with the scenario of Biden remaining in the race, where 58% of those surveyed predict a Trump victory in November, while only 42% believe Harris could win. If Biden were still the Democratic nominee, confidence in his potential victory drops significantly, with 69% predicting a Trump win and only 19% seeing Biden as the likely victor.

Regarding downballot races, the current poll shows a slight edge for Democrats, with 52% indicating they would vote for Democratic candidates in congressional races compared to 48% for Republicans. This represents a shift from the 50%-50% split observed in the May poll.