Kari Lake Faces New Election Troubles
On Saturday, Arizona Republican Kari Lake faced some challenging news regarding her bid for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to recent polling data released by The New York Times and Siena College.
This latest poll, conducted by Siena College—known for its reliable and transparent polling methods—shows Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego leading Lake among likely voters with 51 percent to Lake’s 42 percent. An additional 8 percent of respondents were either undecided or refused to disclose their choice.
The survey, which polled 677 registered voters from August 8 to August 15, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for likely voters in Arizona.
Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who announced in March that she would not seek reelection, has left the Senate seat open. Kari Lake, who won the Republican nomination in late July with over 55 percent of the vote, is facing Gallego, who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary.
Interestingly, the recent poll contrasts with an internal poll conducted by Peak Insights from July 31 to August 5, which showed the race in a dead heat. This internal poll, shared exclusively with National Journal’s hotline, had Lake and Gallego tied at 46 percent each, with 8 percent undecided, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. This earlier poll had offered a glimmer of hope for Lake, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, particularly as she has been trailing Gallego in public polls.
Historically, aggregators such as The Hill and RealClearPolitics have shown Gallego ahead by margins of 5.8 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.
The shift in polling comes at a time when Democrats currently hold a narrow control of the Senate with 51 seats (including four independents who caucus with them), compared to 49 Republican seats. November’s election could potentially alter this balance of power.
In 2022, Lake ran for governor of Arizona but lost by over 17,000 votes. She has since contested the results and remains a strong advocate of former President Trump’s claims regarding the 2020 election, despite a lack of evidence supporting widespread voter fraud.
Additionally, the poll also provides insights into the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic nominee, is leading Trump in North Carolina by 49 percent to 47 percent. The same poll indicates Harris leads in Arizona with 50 percent compared to Trump’s 45 percent, while Trump is ahead in Georgia with 50 percent to Harris’s 46 percent and holds a slight lead in Nevada at 48 percent to Harris’s 47 percent.
