Will Trump actually lose this state? Let’s pray he doesn’t.
Recent updates to the election forecast have marked North Carolina as a “toss-up” in the upcoming presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This shift is significant because North Carolina was a key state in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, where Trump secured victories.
Harris and Trump are currently in a tight competition. Recent polling indicates that Harris, who has gained momentum since becoming the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal, is making headway in the state. Harris’s candidacy has reinvigorated the Democratic base and led to unprecedented fundraising efforts, helping her regain traction after a period of unfavorable polling for Biden.
On Tuesday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjusted its forecast for North Carolina from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up,” reflecting Harris’s improved performance in recent polls both nationally and in crucial battleground states. This change underscores the competitive nature of the race in North Carolina, a state that last supported a Democrat in a presidential election in 2008, when it voted for Barack Obama over John McCain. Since then, Republican candidates have narrowly won North Carolina in every presidential election.
Democrats are hopeful that Harris can turn the tide in North Carolina by boosting turnout among Black voters and appealing to suburban areas that have become more Democratic-leaning in recent years. Despite these efforts, Republicans remain optimistic about maintaining their edge in this historically competitive state.
According to Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Harris’s polling in North Carolina is slightly stronger compared to her performance in Georgia, another crucial swing state. However, he suggests that Georgia, with its higher Black voter population and the influence of Atlanta, might still lean more Democratic than North Carolina.
In the 2020 election, Trump won North Carolina by a narrow margin of 1.3 percentage points, and in 2016, he won by 3.6 percentage points. Recent polls reflect the state’s competitive nature: a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey shows Trump leading Harris by 3 points, while a poll from The New York Times and Siena College indicates Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has also designated other key states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—as toss-ups. In contrast, Florida, Texas, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District are considered “Likely Republican,” while Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District are deemed “Likely Democratic.”
