This can’t happen, can it?
Recent polling suggests that Texas might be more competitive in the 2024 presidential election than initially thought, potentially placing President Donald Trump at risk of losing the state. Historically, Texas has been a stronghold for the Republican Party, having backed the GOP candidate in every presidential election since 1980. However, recent developments have shifted the landscape.
Before President Joe Biden’s exit from the race in late July, most polls indicated that Trump had a solid lead over Biden in Texas. For instance, a survey conducted by Texas Southern University, dated from June 20 to July 1, showed Trump with a 9-point advantage over Biden, with 49% support for Trump compared to 40% for Biden.
The dynamics have changed with Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as the Democratic frontrunner. An August poll from the same institutions shows Trump leading Harris by a narrower margin—about five points. According to this survey, Trump garnered 49.5% of the support, while Harris received 44.6%. This indicates a tighter race than earlier polls suggested, raising concerns that Texas might not be as securely Republican as once believed.
The August poll also revealed that Trump retained 97% of his previous supporters, while Harris held onto 96% of Biden’s base. Notably, nearly half of the voters who supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have shifted their support to Harris, whereas only 21% of Kennedy’s supporters have moved to Trump. Despite this, Trump’s campaign maintains that Harris’s polling boost is likely temporary.
Contrasting results from other polls, such as the ActiVote survey from late July to early August, show Trump leading Harris by a larger margin of seven points. Additionally, the Race to the White House’s polling average indicates Trump’s lead at approximately 6.6 points.
Experts remain skeptical about Harris’s ability to turn Texas blue. Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha from the University of North Texas and Mark Jones from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy suggest that while Harris may make the race more competitive, it is unlikely she will surpass Biden’s 2020 performance in Texas. Both predict a Trump victory, with a margin in the mid-to-high single digits, consistent with the state’s historical Republican preference.
