Who saw this coming?
Recent polling data indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is making notable gains among younger voters, a promising trend for her campaign as she actively seeks to engage this crucial demographic. According to a USA Today/Suffolk University survey released last week, Harris has surged ahead of former President Trump by a significant margin among voters aged 18 to 29. This shift is particularly striking when compared to June, when Trump held an 11-point advantage over President Biden. As of August, Harris now leads Trump by 13 points within this group.
Despite this positive development, the challenge remains in converting online enthusiasm into actual voter turnout. Melissa Deckman, CEO of the nonpartisan PRRI and author of “The Politics of Gen Z: How the Youngest Voters Will Shape Our Democracy,” highlights this issue. She notes that while social media can generate significant support, it does not always translate into votes. “It’s easy to support something online,” Deckman observes, “but does that actually lead to getting people to the polls?”
Harris has indeed gained traction online, buoyed by her running mate’s characterization of the Trump-Vance ticket as “weird” and by viral moments, such as her reference to her mother’s advice about context and existence. Her campaign has responded with a strong digital presence, including a “Kamala HQ” TikTok account aimed at engaging young voters as they return to school.
Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill show Harris surpassing Trump in national head-to-head matchups. A New York Times/Siena poll of key battleground states reveals Harris with an 8-point lead over Trump among young voters, a dramatic shift from earlier this year when Trump had a slight edge over Biden.
The Voters of Tomorrow organization, which supports Harris, reports that two-thirds of young voters in swing states favor her candidacy, representing a 44-point lead over Trump. Similarly, a Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll shows Harris leading Trump by 12 points among voters aged 18-34 in swing states, a significant turnaround from Trump’s narrow lead earlier in the summer.
Despite this momentum, concerns persist about the reliability of young voter turnout. Data from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement indicates a rise in youth voter turnout from 2016 to 2020, with about 55 percent of young people casting ballots. However, younger voters still represented only 15 percent of the electorate in 2020, compared to 27 percent for voters aged 65 and older. Early indicators suggest that young voter turnout could be even lower this cycle.
David Paleologos of Suffolk University notes that while Harris has made significant strides, she still needs to address key issues to secure the youth vote fully. “Movement among young voters has put her in the game to be competitive in this election,” Paleologos says, but emphasizes that Harris must address concerns about her policy positions, especially on issues like the economy, to close the gap further.
Youth organizers remain hopeful. Sunjay Muralitharan, national vice president of College Democrats of America, believes that Harris can energize younger voters similarly to how Biden did in 2020. He stresses the importance of engaging young people both online and offline and ensuring they have a clear plan to vote.
The Voters of Tomorrow group is focusing on social media outreach to convert online enthusiasm into actual voting. Their latest survey shows a rise in certainty among young voters in battleground states about participating in November’s election.
However, some youth-oriented groups remain cautious. The Sunrise Movement, while supporting Harris, has yet to fully endorse her due to concerns about her climate policies and other issues. Josh Lafazan, a former Nassau County legislator, believes Harris is making significant progress but must continue to articulate specific plans to address the needs of young voters to solidify her support.
While Vice President Harris is making impressive gains among younger voters, the challenge remains to maintain and build on this momentum by addressing critical issues and ensuring high voter turnout among this crucial demographic.
