Democrats To Flip Florida Blue?
Recent polling data has stirred optimism among Democrats regarding their chances in Florida for the 2024 elections. A Morning Consult poll, released on Monday, reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, 49% to 47%. This survey, conducted from August 30 to September 8, sampled 3,076 likely Florida voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Additionally, a poll from The Hill and Emerson College, conducted from September 3 to 5 among 815 likely Florida voters, indicates that Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D-Fla., is trailing incumbent Senator Rick Scott by just one point. This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points.
Democrats are pinning their hopes on ballot measures to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution and to legalize recreational marijuana. They believe these measures could significantly boost voter turnout and sway the election in their favor. Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, expressed frustration with the current political climate. She suggested that the need for an abortion amendment stems from Republican policies pushing the state in a direction she deems extreme. According to Fried, voters are growing weary of the chaotic political environment and are seeking change, a sentiment she believes is shifting momentum towards Kamala Harris.
In response, the Harris campaign has begun investing heavily in Florida, hoping that the abortion ballot measure will provide a campaign boost. This week, Doug Emhoff, the second gentleman, is actively campaigning in the state.
Historically, Florida has been a stronghold for Republicans in recent elections. President Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win the state in 2012. In contrast, Governor Ron DeSantis secured re-election by an impressive 18 points in 2022. In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won Florida by a margin of three points, and Scott’s victories in the Senate and gubernatorial races were by razor-thin margins.
Trump campaign spokesman Brian Hughes emphasized that Floridians are increasingly rejecting the Biden-Harris administration’s policies, which he argues have led to higher costs, an open border, and rising crime. “Florida is Trump country,” Hughes stated, underscoring the Republican stronghold in the state.
