It’s extremely critical that Republican voters do not assume Trump will win easily. Make sure to vote.
Recent polling indicates that former President Donald Trump is poised to secure a decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas during the upcoming election. Current surveys show Trump leading by margins ranging from 4 to 12 percentage points, reinforcing Texas’s status as a key stronghold for the Republican Party.
Contrary to assertions from some Democrats, such as former gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke, who labeled Texas a “sleeper battleground state,” these polls suggest that the state remains firmly in the Republican camp. A model from FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a slight edge with a 51 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 49 percent. Trump’s previous successes in Texas during the 2016 and 2020 elections underscore the critical importance of the state, which holds 40 electoral votes.
An Emerson College poll conducted from October 18 to 21 revealed that Trump leads with 53 percent of likely voters, compared to Harris’s 46 percent. This marks an improvement from an earlier Emerson poll, which showed a narrower lead of just 4 points. Similarly, FiveThirtyEight’s latest analysis shows Trump with an average lead of 6.8 points, confirming his strong position in the state.
Further solidifying this trend, an ActiVote survey indicates a remarkable 12-point advantage for Trump, with him receiving 56 percent of the vote. Other polls, including those from Morning Consult and YouGov, consistently show Trump ahead, further suggesting that Texas remains resistant to Democratic gains.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Taylor Rogers emphasizes that the state has felt the repercussions of Harris’s immigration policies, which have contributed to increased crime rates linked to illegal immigration. This sentiment resonates strongly with Texas voters, as reflected in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump leading by nine points.
Meanwhile, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is also navigating a tough reelection battle against Democratic challenger Colin Allred. Despite the competition, recent polls indicate Cruz maintains a lead, highlighting the ongoing strength of the Republican presence in Texas.
As we approach the November election, the data clearly points to a resilient Republican base in Texas, affirming that the Lone Star State is likely to remain a Republican fortress.
