Where Kamala Stands In Ultra-Red Florida

In a recent poll conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL), Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds a significant 7-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida, a state he previously won in 2020. The survey, which was released on Tuesday, shows Trump with 49% support among likely Florida voters, compared to 42% for Harris. Meanwhile, 4% of respondents indicated support for other candidates, and 6% were either undecided or chose not to respond.

Dr. Michael Binder, the PORL faculty director and a political science professor, commented that Trump’s lead in Florida is expected given his strong performance in the state during the previous election. “It’s not surprising to see Trump ahead in his home state,” Binder noted. “Florida was a crucial battleground in 2020, and Trump’s familiarity with the state likely contributes to his current advantage. The entry of Harris into the race has stirred up enthusiasm among her supporters, although it hasn’t been enough to close the gap significantly.”

In addition to the presidential race, the poll also gauged sentiment for the upcoming Senate contest between Republican incumbent Rick Scott and Democrat challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Currently, Scott is leading Mucarsel-Powell by a narrow margin of 47% to 43%. Binder pointed out that Scott’s lead is less substantial than Trump’s and falls just outside the poll’s margin of error.

This poll, conducted from July 24 to July 27, surveyed 774 likely voters in Florida and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The results highlight the competitive nature of Florida’s political landscape, with Trump maintaining a strong lead while Scott’s Senate race remains closely contested.