Democrats are doomed.
As of early July, Joe Biden finds himself in a historically challenging polling position, marking a significant deviation from past Democratic candidates. CNN’s senior data reporter, Harry Enten, notes that the last time a Republican candidate led in general election polls at this point in the electoral cycle was back in 2000, when George W. Bush held an advantage over Democratic Vice President Al Gore. Since then, Democratic nominees like John Kerry in 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Biden himself in 2020 have consistently led in early July polls.
However, the landscape for the 2024 election appears different, with early July aggregates of national polls showing Republican contender Donald Trump leading Biden by a margin calculated at three points by Enten. This shift has raised eyebrows, particularly given Biden’s previous assertions about the accuracy of polls, notably his claims that they underestimated his support in 2020.
During the Democratic primaries, Biden faced challenges as well, not consistently leading against rivals such as Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris in early surveys, particularly in key states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Despite these primary hurdles, Biden managed to secure a lead in general election polling, a trend that continued through the 2020 election cycle.
Enten underscores the novelty of Trump’s current lead, pointing out that such a situation hasn’t occurred since the turn of the century. This development has sparked discussions within Democratic circles about Biden’s viability as a candidate moving forward, exacerbated by critiques of his performance in the first presidential debate against Trump.
In response to mounting speculation and calls for reconsideration, Biden has vocally affirmed his commitment to remaining in the race. In a letter addressed to congressional Democrats, he emphasized his conviction that he is the best candidate to defeat Trump, citing his substantial support during the nomination process. Biden also defended the integrity of the Democratic nomination process, arguing against calls for overhaul.
Amidst these dynamics, Biden’s resolve to focus on the ultimate goal of defeating Trump remains steadfast, seeking to rally party members around this singular objective. The evolving narrative underscores the unpredictability of electoral politics and the challenges facing incumbents in an era of polarized voter sentiment and shifting public opinion.
