Senate GOP Gets Worrisome News

Recent polling has delivered troubling news for Republican Senate candidates in critical swing states, with their Democratic opponents showing strong leads.

Currently, Democrats hold a narrow majority in the Senate with 47 members, four independents who align with them, and 49 Republicans. This tight margin makes the upcoming November elections particularly pivotal.

According to a New York Times/Siena College survey conducted from August 6 to 9, Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, a Democrat seeking his fourth term, leads his GOP opponent David McCormick by 14 percentage points. Casey holds 50% support among 693 registered voters, while McCormick, a former Treasury official and hedge fund manager, trails at 36%. This poll has a margin of error of ±4.5 percentage points.

In Wisconsin, the picture is similarly challenging for Republicans. Senator Tammy Baldwin, who has served since 2013, is ahead of her challenger, businessman Eric Hovde, by 8 percentage points. Baldwin is supported by 51% of respondents compared to Hovde’s 43%. This data comes from a poll of 661 registered voters conducted from August 5 to 8, with a margin of error of ±4.7 percentage points.

The race in Michigan is notably tighter. Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin and Republican Representative Mike Rogers are nearly neck and neck, with Slotkin at 42% and Rogers at 41%, according to the Times/Siena poll of 619 registered voters conducted between August 5 and 8. This poll carries a margin of error of ±5.3 percentage points.

Additional polls provide further context. A survey by the Commonwealth Foundation from July 23 to 25 shows Casey leading McCormick by a narrower margin of 11 percentage points, with Casey at 51% and McCormick at 40%. This poll sampled 800 Pennsylvania voters and has a margin of error of ±3.46 percentage points.

In Wisconsin, a Marquette Law School poll conducted from July 24 to August 1 found Baldwin with 53% support compared to Hovde’s 46%, based on 877 surveyed voters. This poll’s margin of error is ±4.6 percentage points.

For Michigan, an Emerson College/The Hill poll from July 22 to 23 shows Slotkin leading Rogers by 4 percentage points, with Slotkin at 45% and Rogers at 41%. This survey of 800 Michigan voters has a credibility interval of ±3.4 percentage points.

These findings illustrate the challenges facing Republican Senate candidates and underscore the importance of the upcoming elections in shaping the Senate’s balance of power.