Kamala Has Something Biden Never Did

Recent polling data indicates a notable shift in support among Black voters, with Vice President Kamala Harris gaining traction following President Biden’s decision to step aside from the presidential race. A survey from The New York Times and Siena College highlights that nearly 80% of likely Black voters would back Harris in a matchup against former President Trump, marking a significant increase from Biden’s previous 74% support before his withdrawal.

In the 2020 election, Biden had enjoyed overwhelming backing from Black voters, securing 90% of their support. However, the current landscape reveals a more competitive environment, with 15% of Black voters now indicating they would choose Trump—up from just 9% four years ago. The poll also found that 56% of likely Black voters express they are “almost certain” to cast their ballots, signaling a strong commitment to participate in the upcoming election.

Harris’s candidacy appears to invigorate younger Black voters as well. A recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed that 69% of Black Americans aged 18 to 29 are “absolutely certain to vote” this November, compared to 62% earlier this year. This enthusiasm could prove pivotal in battleground states, where registered Black voters largely favor Harris.

Despite her appeal, challenges remain. A Times/Siena poll among male voters reveals Trump leading nationally with 51% support to Harris’s 40%. Democratic strategists have raised concerns about Harris’s need to bolster her numbers among Black and Latino men to effectively counter Trump’s rising appeal within these demographics.

In response to these trends, former President Obama recently campaigned for Harris, urging increased turnout among Black male voters, highlighting the need for renewed energy reminiscent of his own campaigns. As the election approaches, the dynamics among these key voter groups will be critical in shaping the outcome.