What’s going on? This is a strange discovery.
Donald Trump’s support among white voters without a college degree appears to be slipping, according to recent analysis by CNN. Political analyst Harry Enten highlights that while Trump continues to lead in this demographic, his margin has decreased significantly. In 2020, Trump had a 31-point lead, which has now narrowed to 27 points nationally, and even more in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
This decline may not seem drastic on the surface, but it takes on greater significance when you consider the context. Trump has made strides in gaining support from Black and Hispanic voters since his previous campaigns, so the retreat of a core base is noteworthy. Noncollege educated white voters represent about 40% of the national electorate and a substantial 51% in pivotal states. As Enten points out, while Trump is making gains among smaller demographic groups, the loss of support from a larger base could prove detrimental.
Specifically in the crucial battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump’s advantage among these voters has dropped from 25 points in 2016 to just 19 points today. This is a critical shift, especially in states where margins are tight and every vote counts. In 2020, Trump secured 54% of the votes from noncollege educated voters in Pennsylvania, a statistic that has since decreased.
Moreover, polls indicate a decline in support among white women without college degrees, a group Trump won by a significant margin in 2020. Current data suggests he still leads this demographic but by a reduced margin, indicating shifting sentiments that could impact his overall strategy.
With these trends unfolding, it becomes clear that while Trump has historically resonated well with less-educated voters, the diminishing support in essential states may pose significant challenges as the election approaches. The stakes are high, and every voter matters in this critical election cycle, making it essential for Trump and the GOP to engage effectively with all segments of the electorate to maintain their foothold in these key areas.
