Kamala won’t like this.
Recent polling data reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a significant advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in key battleground states like Texas and Florida—two areas that Democrats believe may be competitive in the upcoming November elections.
A survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College indicates that Trump leads Harris by 14 points in Florida, garnering 55% of the vote compared to her 41%. When including independent and third-party candidates, his lead narrows slightly to 13 points, with 53% against Harris’s 40%. In Texas, Trump maintains a 6-point edge in a direct matchup, with 50% support to Harris’s 44%. In a broader presidential ballot scenario, his lead expands to 7 points, at 49% to 42%.
These findings are crucial, as both Texas and Florida together represent 70 Electoral College votes—40 from Texas and 30 from Florida. Historically, Texas has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, nor has it elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Current polling averages indicate that Trump is ahead by approximately 6.3 points in Texas.
Florida, once known as a critical swing state, appears to have shifted more solidly toward Republican candidates in recent years, bolstered by Trump’s previous victories in 2016 and 2020. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s lead in Florida over Harris stands at 3.9 points, with no recent polls indicating a lead greater than 6 points.
Notably, Nate Cohn of The New York Times pointed out that the substantial lead Trump enjoys in Florida is not merely an outlier but may reflect a genuine trend towards Republican dominance in the state. He emphasized that while Trump’s lead might fluctuate, it’s improbable it would shrink to single digits, given recent patterns.
The poll was conducted between September 29 and October 6, surveying 622 likely voters in Florida and 617 in Texas, with a margin of error of about 4.8 percentage points for each state. A national survey of 3,385 likely voters showed Harris with a narrow 3-point lead over Trump.
Democrats, however, remain optimistic. DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison noted in September that the party believes it has a chance in Florida, suggesting that election night could bring surprises. Similarly, former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke expressed confidence that Democrats could soon succeed in Texas.
Forecast models indicate that Trump has an 84% chance of winning Texas and a 73% chance of taking Florida in the upcoming election, underlining the Republican momentum in these critical states. As we approach November, it’s clear that the stakes are high, and every vote will count in this pivotal election.
